Watch the video on YouTube: The Detroit Housing Market Just BROKE (Who's Still Buying)
The housing market in the Detroit suburbs is officially broken.
Not the prices. The buyers.
Compared to last year, about 1 in 5 of the people who were buying homes around here are gone. And the sellers who were counting on them are pulling their houses off the market instead of taking less.
So who's still buying?
That's the question I had, because while a fifth of the market disappeared, I just had the busiest few months of my career. So the market is tanking, and business is picking up. Both of those things are true at the same time, and the gap between them is this whole post.
What's happening right now is great news for some people and terrible news for others. By the end of this you'll know which one you are, and what I think happens next.
All the numbers below are in the free monthly Insider Report at movingmi.com/marketreport — every town, with a cold, warm, or hot label.
What happened: a fifth of the buyers are gone
Last October, 4,184 homes went under contract across the Detroit suburbs. This October, 3,280. That's 22 percent fewer buyers in 12 months.
- Wayne County: down 28%
- Oakland County: down 17%
- Macomb County: down 15%
And it's not a mystery why. A year ago you could get a 30-year mortgage around 6.3 percent. In October it hit 7.4 — the highest in almost 3 years.
So the buyers who left are the ones who feel the rate the most. Under $250,000, contracts dropped 28 percent. Between $400,000 and $600,000, only 10 percent. The first-time buyer went home. Or back to their parents' house. The move-up buyer is still out there. Remember that, because it's the whole reason some people are winning right now.
The terrible news: 78 sellers quit for every 100 that sold
If you listed your house this fall at a price that would have worked in May, this was your month. 2,517 listings expired or got pulled in October — one of the worst months all year for sellers giving up.
Here's a better way to look at it. For every 100 homes that actually sold in October, how many sellers quit?
- Last October: 53
- This October: 78
In Wayne County it's 88 — almost 1 for 1. Warren went from 66 dead listings last October to 121 this October. I like Warren. Warren didn't do anything wrong. Warren just had a lot of sellers who priced for June and found out it was October.
And the ones that did sell? In June, 38 percent of homes sold under asking. In October, 53 percent. And 61 percent sold for less than the price the seller started at — meaning they cut the price, and then took less than the cut.
- Rochester Hills: about half sold under asking last October; 68% this October. 47% of the homes that sold there had already cut the price at least once before they got an offer.
- Royal Oak: 52% → 67% under asking.
- Sterling Heights: 41% → 56%.
- Lyon Township: 31% → 61%. Doubled. That's the township with all the new builds out west, and the new-build buyer is the most rate-sensitive buyer there is.
- Downtown Plymouth (the city, not the township): 33% → 63% under asking.
Yes, I know Cindy and Bob got a million dollars and 20 offers. That was when rates were low and the weather was good. Now it's cold and the rates are sky high. We need to adjust our expectations appropriately.
So if you're thinking about just waiting until spring — you can. You and 2,500 other people are about to find out how that goes.
The good news: buyers are getting deals they couldn't get in May
Now the other side of the same numbers. If you're a buyer in this market, every number I just said is working for you. My buyers are coming out of the woodwork right now, and they're getting deals I couldn't get them in May.
You may be asking: why would anyone buy at 7.4 percent?
Here's the math on a $500,000 house with 20 percent down. The rate going from 6.3 to 7.3 costs you about $256 a month. In October, the median discount a buyer got off the original asking price in that range was $24,000. $24,000 off saves you about $165 a month. So no, on paper the discount doesn't quite cover the rate.
But you can refinance a rate. Nobody, in the history of real estate, has ever gone back to a seller 2 years later and said "hey, can we renegotiate that price?"
My clients figured this out faster than the market did. They're paying more for the money and a lot less for the house, and the house is the part you can't redo. I just landed a house for a client this fall for $180,000 off the original list price. The seller had already cut it once, it sat, and we came in under that — and got it.
The part that doesn't make sense: prices went up 6%?
Fewer buyers. More sellers quitting. Over half selling under asking. So you'd think the prices dropped, right?
Median sale price last October: $260,000. This October: $275,000. Up 6 percent.
Here's what's actually going on. The buyer who left was the cheap buyer. Pull the under-$250,000 houses out of the pile, and what's left is pricier. So the median goes up while almost every individual seller is taking less than they asked. The market didn't get more expensive. The cheap part of it went quiet.
If you're a seller and you see a headline that says Detroit prices are up 6 percent, that's not your house. Your house is in the 53 percent.
Cold, warm, or hot: all 57 towns
So I sorted every town into cold, warm, or hot, based on how many homes sold over asking in October. 57 towns. 9 hot. 25 warm. 23 cold.
And the hot list is basically the cheap list. Southgate, 67 percent over asking. Wyandotte, 52. Eastpointe, 45. Lincoln Park, 43. Every hot town but 2 has a typical price under $250,000.
The cold list is the one that'll surprise people. Troy — 25 percent over asking, 58 percent under. Cold. Rochester Hills, cold. Royal Oak, cold. Birmingham, cold. Bloomfield Township, cold. West Bloomfield, cold.
Novi was hot last October. This October it's warm. Sterling Heights, same thing. Hot last year, warm now. Lyon Township, same.
So the towns that were fighting over houses a year ago are the ones taking less than asking now. And the towns nobody was fighting over have bidding wars.
All 57 towns with their label are in the report at movingmi.com/marketreport.
What that means for the towns on this site: Troy is cold right now — see Who Is the Best Real Estate Agent in Troy, Michigan?. Birmingham is cold too — Birmingham. Royal Oak is cold — first-time buyers, relocation buyers, and selling. Farmington Hills is the exception — warm at 35% over asking in September. Farmington Hills.
Who's still buying: the luxury buyer never left
Last October, 192 homes over $750,000 went under contract in the Detroit suburbs. This October that number was 194. The whole market lost a fifth of its buyers and the luxury buyer didn't move. Between $750,000 and $1 million, contracts went up — 91 last October, 111 this October. Up 22 percent, in a month where everybody else went home.
Because the luxury buyer isn't borrowing at 7.4 percent. The rate that chased the first-time buyer out of Warren does not exist for the guy buying in Bloomfield.
So if you're thinking luxury sellers are fine — you're wrong. Luxury buyers are showing up. They're just showing up with a lower number. 59 percent of homes over $750,000 sold under asking in October (50 percent last October). The median discount off the original price was $75,000. Between $1 million and $1.5 million, 65 percent sold under asking (50 percent last October).
Birmingham: 73 percent of October sales under asking (56 percent last October). And the median discount off the original ask went from $50,000 last year to $79,000 this year. $79,000 is a really nice kitchen. Actually, in Birmingham that's maybe half a kitchen.
Every town over $750,000 is broken out in a separate Luxury Insider Report — same link, movingmi.com/marketreport.
The seller who won: 5 offers over asking in 3 days
Back to the seller I mentioned at the start. They had a house in West Bloomfield, right around $800,000. 65 homes sold in West Bloomfield in October, and only 15 percent of them got over asking. 63 percent sold under. And that price range in that town is not where bidding wars happen. Those houses usually sit for a while.
My seller got 5 offers in 3 days, and every one of them was over asking. Same month, same town, same buyers everybody says disappeared.
Two things made the difference. First, we priced it for October, not for what Jack and Dianne got in May. Second, we ran it on the same launch plan I use on every listing. Prep first. Then photos. Then it goes up as coming soon on a Sunday, showings open Friday morning, and offers are due Monday. The whole point is that every buyer who's out there sees it in the same 72 hours and knows they're not the only one looking.
When there's a fifth fewer buyers, you can't let the ones that are left trickle through one at a time for weeks. You force them to show up together.
That's the Slingshot Method — the full playbook is at movingmi.com/slingshot-method. Priced right, launched right, 5 offers over asking. If we priced like it's May, they would have been one of the 78 sellers giving up.
What do you do with all this?
If you're buying: this is the best leverage you've had in years, and most buyers are sitting on the couch because of a rate you can refinance.
If you're selling: price it for October, and launch it so every buyer that's left sees it the same weekend. The 78 sellers who quit for every 100 that sold, most of them didn't have a bad house. They had a May price and no plan.
And here's what I really think happens next. Most of those 2,500 sellers are going to relist in March. All at once. Against each other. Against everybody else who waited for spring. The seller who lists in January is competing with nobody. The buyer who buys in January is competing with nobody.
Wish I had a crystal ball. I don't. I just have a lot of data and a lot of Januaries.
Frequently asked questions
How many Detroit buyers disappeared in the last year?
About a fifth. Contracts across Oakland, Wayne, and Macomb counties fell from 4,184 in October 2025 to 3,280 in October 2026 — down 22%. Wayne County fell 28%, Oakland 17%, Macomb 15%.
Why did prices go up if the market broke?
The median sale price rose 6% ($260,000 → $275,000) because the buyers who left were the cheapest buyers — under-$250,000 contracts fell 28%. The median went up while 53% of individual sellers took less than asking.
Are luxury buyers still buying?
Yes — in the same numbers. Homes over $750,000 went under contract 194 times in October 2026 vs 192 last October, and $750K–$1M contracts rose 22%. But 59% of luxury sales closed under asking, with a median discount of $75,000 off the original price.
What does cold, warm, or hot mean?
Paul sorts each town by the share of homes selling over asking. Hot is 45%+ over asking, warm is 30–45%, cold is under 30%. In October 2026: 9 hot, 25 warm, 23 cold out of 57 towns.
Where can I get the full October report?
Free at movingmi.com/marketreport — all 57 towns with their cold/warm/hot label, plus the luxury tiers.
Contact Paul
Call or text (734) 743-1482 — [email protected] — Paul Wolfert, Century 21 Curran & Oberski, 28478 Woodward Ave, Royal Oak, MI 48067 — movingmi.com/contact
Free home valuation: movingmi.com/home-valuation — Search homes: movingmi.com/properties — The Slingshot Method: movingmi.com/slingshot-method — Free Insider Report: movingmi.com/marketreport
